India ka economic growth ab thoda sa slow ho gaya hai. Is fiscal year ke pehle quarter mein, real GDP growth sirf 6.7% rahi, jo Q4 FY24 ke 7.8% aur pichle saal ke 8.2% se kam hai. Agriculture, private consumption, aur government expenditure mein lagataar girawat ne growth rate ko 7% se neeche le aaya.
India’s GDP Growth
Yeh estimate consensus expectation ke range mein hai, jo 6%-7.1% ke beech tha, lekin economic activity ka slowdown yeh sawaal uthata hai ki kya India ek aur achhe growth year ko dekh payega, especially jab FY24 ka momentum kaafi strong tha.
Analysts ne pehle hi is decline ki chinta jatai thi, particularly 2024 ke election season ke doran government expenditure mein kami ke chalte. Lekin jo cheez sabse zyada upsetting hai, woh yeh ki economy ke doosre hisson ne government spending ke decline ko compensate nahi kiya. Private consumption, investments, aur agriculture sector, jo expected the growth ko support karne mein, ab tak apni poori commitment dikhane mein nakam rahe hain.
National Statistics Office dwara release ki gayi data ke mutabik, Q1 FY25 mein real Gross Value Added (GVA) 6.8% se grow hui, jo pichle financial year ke Q1 ke 8.3% se kam hai. Secondary sector ne growth mein 8.4% ka yogdan diya, jabki primary aur tertiary sectors mein slowdown dekhne ko mila. Real GDP at constant prices Rs 43.64 lakh crore par estimated hai, jo pichle saal ke Rs 40.91 lakh crore se 6.7% zyada hai.
Supply side per dekhen, toh primary sector jo agriculture aur mining & quarrying ko include karta hai, usmein sirf 2.7% ka growth hua, jo pichle saal ke 4.2% se kaafi kam hai. Agriculture and allied services sector ne sirf 2% ka growth dikhaya, jo pichle saal ke 3.7% se kam hai. Mining aur quarrying ne 7.2% ka growth dikhaya, jo pichle saal ke 7% ke aas-paas hi hai.
Tertiary sector mein bhi slowdown dekha gaya, jismein Q1 mein 7.2% ka growth rate raha, jo pichle saal ke 10.7% se kam hai. Trade, hotels, aur financial services mein decline dekhne ko mila, lekin public administration aur defence sector ne 9.5% ka growth dikhaya.
Secondary sector ne Q1 mein kaafi achha performance diya, jismein manufacturing, electricity, aur construction sectors kaafi behatar growth dikhane mein safal rahe. Manufacturing aur utility services ne 8.4% ka growth dikhaya, jabki electricity ne 10.4% aur construction ne 10.5% ka growth rate achieve kiya.
Expenditure side par dekhen, toh private consumption, jo GDP ka sabse bada component hai, usmein 9.8% ka growth hua hai, lekin ismein aur behtar hone ki potential hai. Government final consumption expenditure, jo elections ke chalte slow ho gaya, mein 0.2% ka y-o-y de-growth dekhne ko mila. Gross fixed capital formation, jo investment activity ka ek indicator hai, usmein Q1 mein 7.5% ka increase dekha gaya.
In conclusion, India ka growth abhi thoda pressure mein hai, aur agar isko sustain karna hai, toh agriculture, private consumption, aur investment sectors ko aur active hona padega.
